134 out

[Banz]

I'm looking for input into the best way to take out 134.  I'll pre-empt Cy by saying that it's probably a mistake to land on 134 when 132, 136 and 140 are preferable but however it happened, we're on 134.


The reason for my interest in this number is that I have seen the best player on our team bust 134 with T20-S14-T20 and I myself have gone T20-T20 to leave the hated D7.  In both these cases the other player wasn't on a finish so it was a blunder to go this way.  (The reason I threw for the second T20 is terrible; I didn't think I was good enough to hit it.)

My thoughts... Going T20 first is fine.  If you hit the single 20 then you're just trying to leave a good double or 2-darter for your next visit.  You could do this with T20-S14 or S20-T18 for tops.  If you hit T20 then T14-D16 is reasonable.  If you're going to move from 20's to another treble then you may as well try to leave D16 (rather than, for example T18-D10).

But what happens if you hit T20-S14 to leave 60, 1 dart in hand.  Do you risk busting by going for S20 to have 3 darts at tops next visit?  Do you just make sure you definitely aim high?  Or do you take away the chance of busting but likely leave only a two-darter e.g. T8.

Maybe this question boils down to the best way to go from 60 with 1 dart in hand!

[Shanesaw]

134 I always go T17-T17-D16. Two single 17's leaves an even 100 with a dart in hand and a single 17 and T17 leaves 66 with a dart in hand to set up.

Just my preferred way to go.

[Banned]

134 is a tough one no matter what your name is.

I tend to follow what Gary Anderson does.

Treble 18 leaves 80. Then I go for 2 tops.

But it's still a tough out no matter what way you go. Playing in over 1000 online matches over a years time I can count on one hand the amount of times I've taken out 134. But it's always been starting with treble 18.

Basically it's an out that requires 2 trebles to get to a double. It all comes down to a bit of luck really.

[Banz]

134 I always go T17-T17-D16. Two single 17's leaves an even 100 with a dart in hand and a single 17 and T17 leaves 66 with a dart in hand to set up.

Just my preferred way to go.

That's not a way I'd ever have considered but I actually like it. I might have a few throws at it tonight. It ticks a lot of the "large outshot" boxes for me: aiming at 1 target, don't bust and don't leave a horrible double.

[Troll]

T20 T20 d7 . But only if your rhythm player

[ReggaeDarts]

Umm, good Check-out to Discuss. This is defo one 3 Darter that has multiple Formula, all just as Viable as the other, as the Lads' ve said up above Starting on 18's, or 17's. Recently, the last few Months I've been utilising 19's. Ideally aiming to score 114 ( 2 x T19 ) to leave me a Dart at D10. If I only hit Two S19 I'm left with 96 on the last Dart, If I score 76 ( T19 S19 ) I got a Dart in hand with 58 left.

There is a lot to be said though about going for T18 first Dart to leave 80... Tops-tops is a very viable option to Check-out, underrated I think.

[Spartan]

https://www.dartsnutz.net/forum/showthre...?tid=16048

[ReggaeDarts]

https://www.dartsnutz.net/forum/showthre...?tid=16048

Intriguing look on the Poll there, Spartan. Most votes going for the T20 first Dart. 

Is this cos of Novice Darters, or those that just don't understand their Formulas. Ummm...

[BigE]

Kaitanen:

The T20-T14-D16 sequence is made less than the top sequence, but has the same winning percentage in an exp v exp game with opponent on 32. 

T19-T19-D10 is recommended for the average player when the opponent is a bit ahead.  

T17-T17-D16 looks good when avg opponent is on a double. It's also recommended for the pro.

The chart is sorted by most likely chances to win in an exp v exp match when opponent is on 32.  My guess is that the chart would sort differently in a pro v pro match or avg v avg.  Has anyone seen the full book?  There is only access to this one chart available online.

134 
   sequence                    pro v pro   exp v exp  av v av    L who   pbe      lpwo 32
   T20-D17-D20              32..60p       32..40p                     exp   1.5%      !
   T20-T14-D16              61..310p      33..501p                R exp   1.2%  -0.0%
   T20-D19-D18              ©                                              pro   1.5%  -0.2%
   T19-T19-D10                                             32..74p     R ave   1.2%  -0.3%
   T20-T18-D10                                                             R exp   1.2%  -0.5%
   T18-D20-D20                                  ©                          exp   1.5%  -0.9%
   T19-T19-D10(6)                                         75..92p        ave   1.0%  -1.1%
   T19-T15-D16                                                             R ave   1.2%  -1.4%
   T17-T17-D16              302..410p                 ©               pro   1.2%  -2.8%
   T19-19-18...40p                                         91..501p       beg   0.1%  -3.4%

The three columns pro v pro, exp v exp and av v av identify when the sequence is appropriate.
L is what can be found printed in standard outshot cards. 
who in BOLD is what Kaitanen recommends is appropriate for each skill level.   
pbe is percentage made by expert.  
lpwo32 is losing percentage (below top choice) in an expert V expert game with opponent on 32. 
© denotes critical situation ( opponent on 32 ).

Expert is a 75 PPT player, hitting a triple once every 5 darts.  A pro hits a triple almost every second dart.  An average player can intentionally hit a triple once every 10 darts, a beginner about once every 20.  These are just the definitions in the book, and are not meant to reflect reality. 

Using these definitions, the pro can hit up to 115 PPT in this model, but is probably a bit lower from 1's and 5's. 
The Expert can hit up to 84 PPT in this model, and the Avg up to 72 

Those numbers assume hitting 20's only, and not missing the 20 wedge ever.  

Reality costs the expert almost 10 PPT, and probably closer to 20 for the avg player.  So a 50-55 PPT should be close to what the average player hits on the way down....  All PPT exclude doubling out: scoring only.

The middle columns are a little weird.  They indicate when a sequence gives you the best shot at winning.

Example: 

In a pro v pro match, if the opponent is on 32-60, then T20-D17-D20 is recommended.  
In a pro v pro match, with opponent is on 60-310, T20-T14-D16 is recommended. 
Ina pro v pro match, with opponent on 302-410, T17-T17-D16 is recommended.  

I guess the odds are equal when the opponent is on 302-310 between  T20-T14-D16 and T17-T17-D16.

[Banned]

As someone who has been into darts since 1996 and studied all aspects of darts quite thoroughly how can you expect anyone to follow what you typed from Kaitanen's writings?

I have a hard enough making things outs. Could a beginner or intermediate player understand any of it?

[Banz]

https://www.dartsnutz.net/forum/showthre...?tid=16048

Thanks for the link Spartan. I did look before posting but searching "134" gives a million results and, being male, just looking through the forum didn't work.

Maybe we need a category for checkout discussions!

[Banz]

Recently, the last few Months I've been utilising 19's. Ideally aiming to score 114 ( 2 x T19 ) to leave me a Dart at D10. If I only hit Two S19 I'm left with 96 on the last Dart, If I score 76 ( T19 S19 ) I got a Dart in hand with 58 left.

That 19's option looks really good. Let me compare it to 17's...

19's
S19-S19 leaves 96
S19-T19 leaves 58
T19-T19 leaves D10

17's
S17-S17 leaves 100
S17-T17 leaves 66
T17-T17 leaves D16

I think 19's just shades it due to 4 19's leaving S18 for tops. With 4 17's you can't hit a single for the double.

[BigE]

As someone who has been into darts since 1996 and studied all aspects of darts quite thoroughly how can you expect anyone to follow what you typed from Kaitanen's writings?

I have a hard enough making things outs. Could a beginner or intermediate player understand any of it?

Yes, there is a LOT of information contained in Kaitanen's tables. It took me quite a while to understand how to use them.  I do not expect that a beginner would be able to decipher any of it.  It really targets the average player ( meaning 50 PPT and up ) that is serious about learning the odds.  What you do with them is up to you.

If you don't want to figure them out, then pick the top one as a starting point to personalize your own outs.

I find the middle columns are very difficult to use....You can look at the middle columns showing when a particular sequence is appropriate.  I think that when there are no entries in a row in the middle column, it is not recommended *ever*.  These empty entries are included probably because the sequence is mentioned in published literature ( The 'R' column ).

Make no mistake, Kaitanen's work is reference.

He does not suggest it is an out chart of absolute truth. He himself writes why you would pick an out that is lower in the chart than the first out mentioned -- you may be better on hitting the starting triples on sequences lower in the table.  If you're doing that, I think it means there are aspects of your game that you could possibly improve upon.

Kaitanen's work also has no human factor in it at all.  So, he often shows double double finishes.  I don't know about you, but I find them quite a bit frightening.  My guess is that most people do.  He also assumes that the distribution of darts around the target is identical irrespective of what you are shooting at.  This is certainly not true for most people.  

I'm sure that the charts would change if your darts landed in an elliptical pattern, and then if the major axis was vertical vs horizontal, there would be a difference again.  

Again, no human factors, purely mechanical odds for a very very consistent sort of player.

This does not make them useless.  I make mention of them because they add to the pile of information that people use to create their own out charts.  Especially if you are looking at one of two options, Kaitanen can help you pick the one that has better odds under computer simulation.  If the odds are far apart, it's likely that the sequence higher in the table will work better..... again, if that one does not have some sticking point like being a double/double sequence.


In most cases, the massive outshot is not going to be made anyway, but I find comfort in shooting at most of the suggested outs on top of the list... double/double is really not my cup of tea...