Darts mathematics, probabilities, and out shots
To sum this all up:

I gave mathematical proof - Cyanide didn't care.
I provided mathematical read incl. explanations - Cyanide didn't care.
I gave analogies that show the same thing - Cyanide didn't care.
I asked questions that would guide you to your mistake - Cyanide didn't care.
I gave easy experiments that will give evidence - Cyanide didn't care.

All we got was one sentence, that is by all means absolutely not applicable to the claim he makes. 1) Foremost, it is about a different situation in the game, 2) it talks marks, which are not really applicable to 501, and which make bull and full size double equally probable.

I do not expect people to have the same mathematical background as I do. I do not expect people to just believe be - but I do give explanations, examples and easy thoughts to follow and get you thinking.

I really find Cyanides behavior absolutely unacceptable by any standard, be it academic or social. It is insulting.

I totally understand why one might think "well, but he might have a point there", but here are some more considerations. Please note that we are always talking about stochastic probability, not about setting up mind games for yourself - if this is what you want, you can go for T16 for 80.

If hitting a treble would make the next dart harder (as Cyanide claims)...

... this shouldn't be limited to within the 3-dart-throw. So If you hit a treble in the last three darts, this makes it harder to hit anything in the current throw
... meaning if you have 40 left, you are much more likely to hit it you your last throw as 20-20-20, than if you were coming from 220 and hitting a 180.
... Having hit your double with the first dart in the previous leg? Stars are bad now for you in the next leg, you just made it more difficult to hit.
... Wait, what about playing pairs? The darts for your opponent are difficult as well, and hitting good after your partner hit well, is unlikely. You will probably throw better if he hit rubbish.
... This counts for your opponent as well, of course. And for the bloke at the neighbor board. Heck, it counts for the guy on TV.
... Yes, Taylor hit a 180, so don't go for a treble - you can't hit. It's so unlikely that you both hit at the same time.
... After 10 times a red number in roulette, the next one will much more likely be black (sorry, cannot go without another analogy.)

Now this is ridiculous, you say. Sure it is. But this is what Cyanide says about the world.

I must admit I am not used to that kind of behaviour. If someone just keeps telling you the earth is a disc, and won't look at any proves you hand off to him. it's probably better to just move on.

I've put that guy on my ignore list now. I keep getting angry about that insulting behaviour, and I'm not here to get upset. I totally accept that as "my problem" not being able to cope with that. I just hate it when people spread provenly wrong theses and put them into other people heads. I should be more relaxt when confronted with that. Sorry, I can't.

If anyone is interested in calculating some odds for outshots, just PM me. By the way, Kari Kaitanen, a scientist from Finland, has put a tremendous amount of work into calculating outshots, even taking playing strength both for the player and his opponent into account and the opponent's score. I think he was considering the probability for winning within next 15 darts. It resulted in a huge amount of computed data (and as he put it: Please note that these figures are the "mathematical facts" of the sport and there is nothing I can do to change them). Many of it got published in his book, which is unfortunately sold out for years.

His old website is still however, offering some of it, and it also explains some of the mathematical background (like Gauss, dispersion of darts, etc.). It's a good read and not too crowded with mathematical formulas at all.

Here's the link: http://www.reocities.com/researchtriangl.../tdb1.html

129 isn't even a debatable out. Ya go 19's. If you hit a treble 1st dart so be it.

Personally, I've had more shots at a double by going 19,60 compared to hitting 2 trebles. I believe ANY dart player would say the same thing.

And I didn't start a thread asking how to take out 79 :s
This seems much more personal between you and Cyanide than it does about outs. You seem to be ignoring the rest of us as well.

Keeping dart retailers in business since 2012.
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The maths probabilities aren't debatable and yes you would prefer D6 over Bull, but darts isn't all about probabilities. There are many other factors and when it comes to outshots the main ones I find are pressure and nerve and these have to be taken into consideration.

You have made good points with the maths, but I feel you have let your well made point be devalued by directing insults at another member, which I see no good reason for having read the posts. If there is an underlying issue for this then deal with it away from the public eye of the main forum pages
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Darts Setup: 23g DPC Extreme Performance, Black Target Pro Grip Stems, Target Vision 100 Standard Flights, 35mm Gold CD Mk3 Points
Previous Darts Setup: 23g DPC Gun Metal Elite, Medium Black Target Pro Grip Stems, Standard Black V180 Flights, 30mm Black Grooved Storm Points

Seems to me the lynchpin of OP's thesis, precede by a proof of sorts, is "… Ok, so all three darts are independent." I totally get it. But I'm a frail, vulnerable dart-throwing human. For me, they're not independent, and never will be. Even if I desperately want to talk myself into it.
26's so far this year: I've already lost count. :-)


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Son of Merlin

Caerleon - Wales

(Monster "Milkman" - 22.4Gm, Smooth Gold Points 36mm, Yellow Kite Shape Flights 100 micron & Solid Brass Stems)

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My father Merlin, once told me that "You should end up pointing to what you were aiming at when you've released the Dart."

Sports and games aren't played on paper for a reason.

A batter can be 0 for 20 vs a pitcher and hit the game winning grand slam on the first pitch.
The Raiders beat the Chiefs yesterday even though the Raiders had not won a game all season.
USA made it out of the group of death... lol
Kim beat MvG
Etc, etc, ad nauseum.

Human element cannot be accurately predicted, or all these betting sites wouldn't exist.

Sure, you play the percentages. But throwing numbers around all willy-nilly doesn't negate years of what the majority of pros have done for decades.

Keeping dart retailers in business since 2012.
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(11-21-2014, 03:59 PM)brenthahn Wrote: Seems to me the lynchpin of OP's thesis, precede by a proof of sorts, is "… Ok, so all three darts are independent." I totally get it. But I'm a frail, vulnerable dart-throwing human. For me, they're not independent, and never will be. Even if I desperately want to talk myself into it.

Thats what I keep coming back to as well. If I were a robot, throwing in a vacuum, Id be totally on board with all three darts being independant. Mentally, I get it. I really do. But as a human with flaws and emotions, I do think what I do with my first and/or second dart effects my third dart, from confidence, over compensation or whathaveyou.
Current Match Setup:

DPC Gun Metal 25g w/ Voks Tornado points.

Yeah, we are not perfect.

Funny thing is, you guys talk about "confidence boost". I like that thing. And you often feel it after hitting T20 T20.... you just know that last dart WILL go into the treble bed as well.

It's a good think to believe in. Because it will help you. While there might not be a mathematical foundation for that claim, it makes things easier for you, powers your mind.

You say: I have it one, I am a great player, just proved it,now I hit the next just with ease!

*Much* better to fool yourself this way than to say it the other way "oh I just hit a good score, so I won't probably won't hit another, this game is just so difficult".


i for one really appreciate the other thread on set up shots , i think Cy put a lot of time into it and it's exactly what the forum needs .
exactly what the forum doesn't need is people refusing to accept others can have an opinion. do i think Cy's thread was 100% correct ? i don't know as a fairly average player i don't have the skill level to know , but what i will do is pick it up and try it for myself , making any adjustments i think i'd prefer as i go , what i won't do is if i find another way suggest he was wrong and i was right make a new post , ignore everyone else and keep attacking . why does he have to accept you are right ?
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