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Because I can give clear mathematical prove and get no answers to my questions that would guide him to see his error.

I mean that 129/110/72 example pretty much boils it down.

The first dart thrown is a matter of the past. It has no influence on the next two darts whatsoever.

If you think that your first dart has influence on the next one, please explain how. Do they talk to each other? What if you don't look and so don't know where it has gone?

Throw one dart at a target, and you've got a probability for hitting the areas around it.

A basic assumption: you hit a treble with every third dart, you hit a double with every third dart, and you hit bullseye with every eighth dart. Numbers may vary.

Hit treble and double for 72 with the prob. of 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9. Thats 11 % success rate.

Hit treble and bull for 110 with the prob. of 1/3 * 1/8 = 1/24. That's 4 % success rate.

Really, how can you think that T20 D25 is easier to hit than for example T16 D12?

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11-19-2014, 07:16 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-19-2014, 07:16 PM by Banned.)
You're not seeing the big picture Ico.

Using that fancy math of yours, what's a HARDER shot, hitting 8 marks with 3 darts, or hitting 6 marks with 3 darts?

8 marks from 129 = treble 19, treble 12, double 18. Or whatever treble you pick for the 2nd dart. Doesn't matter.

Or 6 marks from 129 = single 19, treble 20, bull.

Simple right?

Me, I stand a better chance hitting 6 marks 100% of the time than I would hitting 8 marks.

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No. The question is not "What is more likely - finish 129 on bull or on D12?"

After your first dart you have a score to kill. It can be 72 or 110.

In this situation, what is easier, and HOW can it make a difference where the first dart is?

Really, please answer this one now and directly:

How is your second/third dart effected by the first one? It just sticks somewhere, be it S1, T19, or the floor.

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129 and the other guy is on a double if you have an option of 1 treble t19 or t20 2nd dart after a s19 id definately take the t20 2nd dart for a guaranteed shot at the bull instead of a hypothectical shot at a double.